Exploring the common characteristics of one-term presidents
When you pull out the core factors or influences that lead an incumbent president to lose reelection, patterns and commonalties emerge. Part 1 of 5.
America has a long enough history to provide meaningful context to a question I’ve been wondering about lately…
Are there commonalities amongst all one-term presidents who lost their bid for reelection?
In almost every poll over the last few months, Joe Biden is leading the incumbent. These poll results are a reflection of some set of factors. Are those factors similar to what past incumbents experienced leading up to their failed reelection attempt?
Before listing or surmising about factors influencing the current circumstances and election, let’s walk through past first.
Who are the nine one-term presidents who lost their bid for reelection?
(Not including presidents who were assassinated or died while in office).
John Adams (1797–1801)
John Quincy Adams (1825–1829)
Martin Van Buren (1837–1841)
Benjamin Harrison (1889–1893)
William Howard Taft (1909–1913)
Herbert Hoover (1929–1933)
Gerald Ford (1974–1977)
Jimmy Carter (1977–1981)
George H.W. Bush (1989–1993)
Over the next few weeks, we’re going to dive into a couple presidents at a time and pull out the key factors for re-election failure. Hopefully at the end, we’ll have a nice chart of factors and a commonality that could be applied to our current electoral situation.
Let’s start with the father-son duo of John and John Quincy Adams.
John Adams. The through-line from Adams to present day is uncanny. The Federalists were dominant through George Washington’s two terms. Many Democratic-Republicans believed that with the election of Adams, it was possible that the Federalists could hold power for the first 50 years of the new republic. But with that power came infighting. Adams marshaled in the Alien and Sedition Acts and fought the undeclared “Quasi-War” with France for two years. These actions led many Federalists to believe that Adams was still partial to tactics of a monarchy.
Sensing defeat to Thomas Jefferson and having a major vacancy on the Supreme Court in the final months of his term, Adams nominated John Marshall as Chief Justice and commissioned others to fill federal court vacancies in the final days of his presidency.
Adams lost, but Marshall used Marbury v. Madison, the very case about judicial commissions, to articulate and cement the concept of judicial review. Marshall, a Federalist, witnessed Adams’ loss then had to endure Jefferson’s adding of two more justices to the court. Marshall also understood the limited role and authority of the Supreme Court as outlined in the Constitution and expressed in practice. The Court was a rather meaningless body, until Marshall said it shouldn’t be.
With the Marbury case, Marshall said that the Supreme Court is the final arbiter of what the Constitution says or means. Congress gets to pass the laws. The President gets to execute the laws. And the Supreme Court gets to say if the laws are Constitutional.
Adams left Washington in the early morning hours of Inauguration Day. He was disgusted and couldn’t bear witness to Jefferson taking over the presidency. But Adams caused his own demise. While he could be diplomatic, he was stubborn. His stubbornness created a rift with Alexander Hamilton, that ultimately led to the vote in the legislature in favor of Jefferson over Adams.
Key factors for losing:
- Government overreach.
- Intra-party conflict.
John Quincy Adams. John Quincy was the son of John Adams. While the circumstances of his father’s election seem familiar to today, the America we have today is due in large part of John Quincy’s vision.
Although John Quincy was a Federalist like his father, by the end of the Jefferson term in 1809 he was a Democratic Republican. John Quincy learned from Jefferson that the Constitution created necessary limitations on government, but that did not mean the federal government couldn’t be bold.
For instance, Jefferson knew the Louisiana Purchase was an unconstitutional act, but was necessary for the longevity of the United States. John Quincy, sworn in as president on a book of constitutional law, believed that the “General Welfare” clause allowed wide exercise of federal authority.
America was moving westward. John Quincy developed an economic plan known as the American System. This plan fixed tariffs to protect American industry, fortified and built a national banking system, and directed national treasure to the development of infrastructure like roads and canals to boost commerce amongst the states.
This vision of America was not shared by the more southern and newly formed Democratic Party. John C. Calhoun, John Quincy Adams’ Vice President, jumped parties and joined Andrew Jackson’s ticket against John Quincy. The United States was moving swiftly toward northern and southern political and economic differences.
Although John Quincy Adams didn’t believe in full economic equality, he did believe that the federal government should establish foundational institutions and infrastructure to support the commonwealth of its citizens. To many, this would create economic mobility and shift the economic power structure. This worried many in the south.
John Quincy’s expansion of federal government institutions and activities was seen as abusive and corrupt. This narrative stuck in 1828 as Jackson took to a more modern form of campaigning. John Quincy did not publicly campaign, resorting to more traditional passive campaigning. John Quincy got trounced by Jackson.
Key factors for losing:
- Government expansion and/or overspending.
- Poor campaigning.
- Changing political party structures.
Two common themes emerge from John Adams and John Quincy Adams’ failure to get reelected: Expanding government action beyond the will of the people; and changing scope of political parties.
The next piece will look at Martin Van Buren and Benjamin Harrison — two presidents that don’t often get mentioned but should, given our current set of economic circumstances.
